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All posts tagged Redlands Real Estate

How is our market doing?
Is it a Buyers market?
Is it a Sellers market?
CHALLENGE QUESTION: C
an you name the month that has had the MOST closings each year for the past 2 years for Single family homes?  Answer at the bottom of the article.

The above are common questions for anyone that deals with real estate or is thinking about buying or selling.

To answer many of these questions, it is best to take a look at hard numbers to get your answer rather than taking someone else’s word for it. Remember, this is a BIG investment if you are a Buyer and probably your biggest asset if you are a Seller.  The more information you can get, the better personal decision you will hopefully make for yourself.

Following is a look at just the month of October for sales of Single Family home sales in Fruita and the Grand Junction area.  Modulars and manufactured homes are not included in the data.

2016

2015 2014 2013

2012

# of Sales

188 182 190 162

167

Median Sales Price

$225,250

$209,900 $210,000 $185,636

$165,000

Median. SP/LP %

98%

98.60% 98.06% 97.92%

98.15%

Median Days on Market

76

79 101.5 94

78

Avg. Days on Market

96

115 118 113

98

Median Sold Price/Sq.Ft

$135

$127.06 $121.50 $ 111.00

$107.62

The following looks at the previous 5 years sales between Jan. 1st and Oct. 31st.  Same parameters as above.

2016

2015 2014 2013

2012

# of Sales

2,149

1,985 1,789 1,747

1,751

Median Sales Price

$213,600

$204,000 $194,900 $185,000

$173,500

Med. SP/LP %

99%

98.73% 98.32% 98.24%

98.22%

Median Days on Market

74

80 91 84

82

Avg. Days on Market

98

110 119 109

111

Median Sold Price/Sq.Ft

$133

$125.30 $118.81 $113.25

$107.76

Analysis: Looking at Jan. 1-Oct. 31st over the years, you can see that 2012-2014 had almost the exact same number of sales each year.
Sales in 2015  was up ~11% vs 2014 and now, 2016 has exceed that by increasing 8.24% vs 2015.
Median sales price has been fairly consistent by increasing at around $10,000 per year.
Days on market-  median days on market has dropped by ~1 week vs prior year and the average days on market has dropped by ~10% vs previous years.

Conclusion:   Demand has been increasing by ~8-10% per year for the past 2 years.  Days on market has fallen (that’s a good thing for a Seller).  
Typically, these 2 items coming together would result in a more dramatic increase in Sales Price…but that has not happened as much as I would have guessed given the increased sales coupled with decreasing days on market.  

The question we will find out the answer to over the next 6-12 months is…will we start to see more of a dramatic jump in sales prices due to
1) lower days on market,
2) increased # of sales
3) fairly tight sales price to list price ratio (99%) which shows that Sellers feel they are in better bargaining position than Buyers  
4) really low interest rates.  

Obviously there are other BIG factors that will also steer our market such as our national as well as local economy as we transition into a new leadership and policies, will interest rates stay low (keep an eye on the bond market), and of course the state of our local job market.

Another item that is very important is to keep an eye on is interest rates which is not touched on in this article.  Rates are historically low but rates moving up or down can affect how much one can afford.  2 days after the somewhat surprising presidential outcome, interest rates had jumped 1/4% in a day.  To show how much that affected a Buyer, someone looking at a 15 year loan whose rate moved up by 1/4%, they would have been charged about 1 point to buy their rate back down to what is had been 48 hours prior had they not locked their rate in.  A point is 1% of your loan amount so a $200,000 loan, the jump in interest rate meant a $2,000 cost to buy the rate back down OR if they did not buy the rate back down, then the Buyers could now qualify for a slightly less grand total than they previously could have.

What month has the most number of closings?
Answer: May.  Each year for the past 2 years, May has had more closings than any other month but keep in mind, this is when a home sells NOT when it goes under contract.  Assuming that a typical contract is 30-45 days in length and that means most of these May closings are going under contract in Mid- March through end of April.  So, plan accordingly.

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Brrrrrrrr!!  Starting to get cold outside.   Ski resorts are starting to open & Vail Pass had it’s 1st closure due to snow…so whether we are ready or not, winter is here.  Let’s take a look at the 1st 10 months (Jan. 1-Oct. 31) of 2014 and compare to 2013 to get an idea on how the market is doing.

OVERALL- Single Family Homes *Using areas: Fruita, North, Redlands, GJ City, NE, SE, Clifton, Orchard Mesa

  Single Family Homes  
Overall 2014 2013 % Change
# of Sales 1893 1868 1.34%
Med. Sales Price $185,000 $179,900 2.83%
Avg. Sales Price $213,183 $201,455 5.82%
Med. DOM 90 83.5 -7.78%
Avg. DOM 118 109 -8.26%
Avg SP/LP 97.47% 97.72% -0.25%

Thoughts: # of sales is basically about the same.  Prices are up 3-5.5%.  One item to keep an eye on is the Days on Market (DOM) did regress in 2014 by roughly a week.

3 Bdrm Single Family Homes Comparison    
 

2014

2013

2014

2013

Area

# of Sales

# of Sales

Med. Sales Price

Med. Sales Price

Redlands

115

123

$270,000

$280,000

North

182

131

$229,750

$239,000

Fruita

161

141

$192,500

$197,000

GJ City

129

138

$153,000

$153,430

NE

169

177

$169,000

$159,500

SE

159

174

$149,780

$140,000

Orchard Mesa

144

164

$167,500

$149,450

Clifton

98

91

$126,575

$106,000

 

 

2014

2013

Area

Avg. Sales Price

Avg. Sales Price

Redlands

$330,487

$301,800

North

$246,026

$248,915

Fruita

$207,588

$203,864

GJ City

$156,690

$144,255

NE

$166,124

$159,245

SE

$138,335

$132,006

Orchard Mesa

$178,372

$156,234

Clifton

$115,212

$102,836


 

2014

2013

2014

2013

Area

Avg DOM

Avg DOM

Med. DOM

Med.DOM

Redlands

128

115

110

81

North

112

113

100

87

Fruita

127

112

94

90

GJ City

113

108

86

76.5

NE

111

98

86

78

SE

119

94

90

69.5

Orchard Mesa

106

106

79

67.5

Clifton

107

109

78

84

Thoughts:  It appears that the Median & Average Sales Price in 2014 both rose in the areas where prices tended to be under $200K.  Although in areas that were +$200K such as Fruita, Redlands & North areas, this did not hold.  Another item to watch in 2015 is how the Days On Market which increased in 2014 vs 2013 affects the real estate market.

 

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In 2013, there were 2,2439 sales combined over the following areas that were listed on the MLS.
Areas: Palisade, GJ City, NE, SE, Redlands, North, Palisade & Orchard Mesa

Let’s take a closer look at the breakdown of sales in 2013.
The following is for informational purposes only as I cannot verify the data from which I used to compile this info.

Area/2013 # Sold M- Sold Price M-DOM M-SP/LP #2 Bdrms #3 of Bdrms #4 of Bdrms #5 of Bdrms
Redlands 292 $305,000 93.5 97.33% 12 147 102 23
GJ City 295 $140,000 77 97.42% 83 154 36 11
North 295 $252,000 92 98.27% 10 154 96 32
SE GJ 258 $143,890 79.5 99.84% 18 193 42 5
NE GJ 297 $165,000 80 98.19% 23 197 69 8
Fruita 297 $220,000 92 98.51% 15 162 101 17
Orchard Mesa 288 $158,000 78.5 98.25% 27 185 67 7
Clifton 146 $100,958 84 98.20% 14 117 14 1
Palisade 71 $162,500 98 97.01% 22 32 13 2

Legend:
M-Sold Price = Median Sold Price for all single family homes sold in the area listed
M-DOM = Median Days On Market for all single family homes sold in the area listed
M-SP/LP = Median ratio of the Sold Price to List Price. Obviously the higher the %, the closer the Seller
got to receiving their full list price at the time a contract was submitted.
Bdrms Sold: Following is the breakdown of the # of bdrms sold by size in each area.

Have questions, please let me know.  When it comes time to Buy or Sell, please give me a call so I can put my expertise to use for you.
Matt Eilers- 970-445-8227

 

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