(970) 445-8227

matteilers@aol.com

A bank/government owned aka REO property comes onto the MLS.   You call your Dream Home Realtor and head out to take a look at the home.

You think it could use some work but otherwise a decent possibility and in the end you decide that you want to make an offer.  Let’s assume that the home is currently listed at $225,000.

What price should you make an offer at?  Some believe that since it is bank/government owned property, might as well make a low offer on the property.  You decide to offer $191,250 or 15% less than current list price.

What do you think, will the contract be accepted?

To answer that question, I looked at Nov. 19, 2015-Nov. 19, 2016 sales for properties that were listed as REO on the MLS.  This does NOT include HUD homes or short sales as this is listed as a separate category from REO on our MLS.  I looked at SFH not including modular or manufactured homes in the areas of Fruita and Grand Junction.

There were 95 matching sales using the search parameters from above.  Using these, here are the findings:
When I say List Price below, that would be the current list price of when it went under contract. 
Original List Price: the 1st price the REO comes on the market at

*Average Sold Price to List price: 99.12%
*Median Sold Price to List Price when it went under contract: 98.28%
*Only 7.4% of the sold REO homes had a sales price of less than 10%+ of the list price
*Biggest difference from Sales Price to List Price: 82.13%
*Outside of the 82.13% sale, no other REO sale sold for less than 87% of current list price
*76.6% sold for 95%+ of the current list price
*~50% of REO sold properties eventually had some sort of price drop off their Original List Price
*Avg sales price versus Original List Price: 92.30%
*Median Sales Price vs Original List Price: 93.05%

While the stats above do not predict what will actually happen with the house you are looking at, the stats can be used to come up with a decent probability guesstimate.

You could apply the various %’s above, such as, there is a 76.6% chance that the offer accepted will be within 0-5% of the current list price. Same applies for others, currently, there is only a 7.4% chance that the accepted offer would come in at less than 10% of list based off of REO sales in the past year.

For our example, we decided to offer 15% less than list price.  Based off of sales over the past year, only 1/95 sold for 13%+ off their current list price.   So, fire away with the offer, but be prepared that the chance of getting an accepted offer of 15% off of list price seems very very low if last year’s sales stats are a guide.  If your offer of $191,250 was the most you think the home is worth, it doesn’t hurt to offer a contract and see what happens but again, numbers say that this will probably not work out and now your best bet is to sit back, monitor the price and hope the price drops to a point where your $191,250 offer is within the realm of the above numbers.

Want to know what current properties are listed on the MLS.  E-mail me and I can set you up with a REO, HUD and/or a short sale search so you can be updated as soon as a property hits the market.

Read more

Today, let’s take a look at how much a 3 bdrm costs around the various areas of Grand Junction as well as Fruita.

In 2016 year to date, sales of a 3 bdrm single family home (not including modulars or manufactured homes) accounted for 60.3% of the total number of sales versus other bdrm sized homes in the area.

Since a 3 bdrm single family home is the most common sized home that Buyers seek out, let’s take a look at how much a 3 brm home costs around our area.

The following chart shows the Median Sales Price of a 3 bdrm single family home in each area from Jan. 1-Nov. 17th in 2016 as well as for Jan. 1-Nov. 17th, 2015 to see how much prices have changed over the past year.

Area 2016 2015 % Change
Clifton $156,500 $139,700 12.03%
Fruita $222,300 $206,000 7.91%
Grand Junction City $173,450 $169,950 2.06%
SouthEast $175,000 $171,000 2.34%
NorthEast $184,500 $179,900 2.56%
Redlands $323,500 $293,000 10.41%
North  $249,950 $239,500 4.36%
Orchard Mesa $185,000 $175,000 5.71%

Oddly, the least expensive area as well as the most expensive area by far lead the way in terms of % change of how much a 3 bdrm costs in 2016 vs 2015.

Question: Do you think the Average Days on Market differs across the various areas & price points for a sold property in 2016?
Again, you might think there would be some differences around but there is actually very little difference.  The average Days on Market for a sold 3 bdrm single family home for the entire area is 93 days.  6 of the 8 areas listed above are within 3 days of the average.  Redlands, the most expensive area, comes in with the slowest sales rate with an average days on market of 105 days…or roughly 12 days slower than the average. The NE area comes in with the fastest sales rate with an average days on market of  83 days.

Have some numbers you want run or see in a future article, feel free to e-mail me and happy to go Inside the Numbers for you.
E-Mail: MattEilers@aol.com

Read more

How is our market doing?
Is it a Buyers market?
Is it a Sellers market?
CHALLENGE QUESTION: C
an you name the month that has had the MOST closings each year for the past 2 years for Single family homes?  Answer at the bottom of the article.

The above are common questions for anyone that deals with real estate or is thinking about buying or selling.

To answer many of these questions, it is best to take a look at hard numbers to get your answer rather than taking someone else’s word for it. Remember, this is a BIG investment if you are a Buyer and probably your biggest asset if you are a Seller.  The more information you can get, the better personal decision you will hopefully make for yourself.

Following is a look at just the month of October for sales of Single Family home sales in Fruita and the Grand Junction area.  Modulars and manufactured homes are not included in the data.

2016

2015 2014 2013

2012

# of Sales

188 182 190 162

167

Median Sales Price

$225,250

$209,900 $210,000 $185,636

$165,000

Median. SP/LP %

98%

98.60% 98.06% 97.92%

98.15%

Median Days on Market

76

79 101.5 94

78

Avg. Days on Market

96

115 118 113

98

Median Sold Price/Sq.Ft

$135

$127.06 $121.50 $ 111.00

$107.62

The following looks at the previous 5 years sales between Jan. 1st and Oct. 31st.  Same parameters as above.

2016

2015 2014 2013

2012

# of Sales

2,149

1,985 1,789 1,747

1,751

Median Sales Price

$213,600

$204,000 $194,900 $185,000

$173,500

Med. SP/LP %

99%

98.73% 98.32% 98.24%

98.22%

Median Days on Market

74

80 91 84

82

Avg. Days on Market

98

110 119 109

111

Median Sold Price/Sq.Ft

$133

$125.30 $118.81 $113.25

$107.76

Analysis: Looking at Jan. 1-Oct. 31st over the years, you can see that 2012-2014 had almost the exact same number of sales each year.
Sales in 2015  was up ~11% vs 2014 and now, 2016 has exceed that by increasing 8.24% vs 2015.
Median sales price has been fairly consistent by increasing at around $10,000 per year.
Days on market-  median days on market has dropped by ~1 week vs prior year and the average days on market has dropped by ~10% vs previous years.

Conclusion:   Demand has been increasing by ~8-10% per year for the past 2 years.  Days on market has fallen (that’s a good thing for a Seller).  
Typically, these 2 items coming together would result in a more dramatic increase in Sales Price…but that has not happened as much as I would have guessed given the increased sales coupled with decreasing days on market.  

The question we will find out the answer to over the next 6-12 months is…will we start to see more of a dramatic jump in sales prices due to
1) lower days on market,
2) increased # of sales
3) fairly tight sales price to list price ratio (99%) which shows that Sellers feel they are in better bargaining position than Buyers  
4) really low interest rates.  

Obviously there are other BIG factors that will also steer our market such as our national as well as local economy as we transition into a new leadership and policies, will interest rates stay low (keep an eye on the bond market), and of course the state of our local job market.

Another item that is very important is to keep an eye on is interest rates which is not touched on in this article.  Rates are historically low but rates moving up or down can affect how much one can afford.  2 days after the somewhat surprising presidential outcome, interest rates had jumped 1/4% in a day.  To show how much that affected a Buyer, someone looking at a 15 year loan whose rate moved up by 1/4%, they would have been charged about 1 point to buy their rate back down to what is had been 48 hours prior had they not locked their rate in.  A point is 1% of your loan amount so a $200,000 loan, the jump in interest rate meant a $2,000 cost to buy the rate back down OR if they did not buy the rate back down, then the Buyers could now qualify for a slightly less grand total than they previously could have.

What month has the most number of closings?
Answer: May.  Each year for the past 2 years, May has had more closings than any other month but keep in mind, this is when a home sells NOT when it goes under contract.  Assuming that a typical contract is 30-45 days in length and that means most of these May closings are going under contract in Mid- March through end of April.  So, plan accordingly.

Read more

Fruita Fat Tire Schedule: April 23-26th

Join us on April 23 – 26, 2015 as we celebrate the 20th Anniversary of this Colorado Mountain Bike tradition; the US Bank Fruita Fat Tire Festival.

Come ride miles of pristine MTB Trails, meet MTB friends from around the world and support those who support the passion, the lifestyle and the sport we all enjoy  From the VIP party Thursday night, to the live bands Friday and Saturday evenings under the Western Colorado stars in downtown Fruita, as well as one of the top cycling expo’s in the USA. Celebrate hundreds of miles of World Class MTB Trails and join in the fun! Also stick around the following weekend for the 11th Annual US Bank 18 Hours of Fruita @ Highline on May 1 & 2, 2015.

Over The Edge Sports-Fruita is open throughout the Festival for Sales, Service, Info and Conversation. Want to know about Mountain Biking in the Fruita area, go see the experts! (202 E. Aspen Ave. Fruita, 81521).

CLUNKER CRIT

The Fruita Fat Tire Festival Clunker Crit is back and better than ever!

Saturday, April 25, 2015 at Fruita Circle Park in downtown Fruita.

Registration is free, but mandatory, in order to receive your crit number. Registration begins at noon at the Hot Tomato Cafe and Pizzeria located at 124 N. Mulberry St in downtown Fruita.

Events Include
3:00pm- Kids Fun Laps- 3 total laps for those 10 and under.
3:30pm- Adult Fun Laps- 10 minutes around the circle- for those that fancy themselves fun!
4:00pm- Adult Hot Laps- 10 minutes around the circle- for those that fancy themselves speedy!

All riders must wear helmets.

New this year is the addition of a Business League- come on out and represent your small business!

Award categories include Best Clunker, Best Costume, Best Team Clunker, Best Team Costume, and overall winners in the Kids Fun Laps and the Adult Hot Laps.

Prizes include Hot Tomato gift cards and shwag.

PLEASE LEAVE YOUR DOGS AT HOME-there is food service and participants on bikes, so we would appreciate for the safety of both your pet and the participants that you adhere to this policy.

FESTIVAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, April 23

9a-3p Vendor Arrival/Expo Set up VENDORS Only-Fruita Civic Center Park (325 E Aspen Ave)
3p-5p Festival Pass/Demo Wristband Registration/Check In Fruita Civic Center Park (325 E Aspen Ave)
3p – 6p KEEN Rippin Chix Beg/Int Skills Camp in Park. More Info: AlisonGannett.com970-209-8207
5p-7:30p Festival Pass Registration/Check In Suds Brothers Brewery (at door of VIP Party) -No Demo Wristbands will be sold during this time Check out the Menu
No pass, no problem  you can still come $20/door until 7:30p (come early!). All will be fed! Party with fellow Mountain Bikers all night long!

Online Registration available at imathlete.com during event

Friday, April 24

8a – 9p Expo Open. (*Note, most vendors close booths at sunset, bands & beer ‘till 9p).
8a – 6p Bike Demo’s Available from Vendors. *Demo bike availability varies with vendor. FFTF does not guarantee availability. (Festival Pass, Weekender Pass, or Demo Wristband Required to demo bikes from Vendors)
9a -12p KEEN Rippin Chix Intermediate Singletrack Camp. More Info:AlisonGannett.com 970-209-8207
8a-6p Weekender Pass/Demo Wristband Registration/Check In- Fruita Civic Center Park (325 E Aspen Ave)
12p – 9:15p New Belgium Beer Garden OPEN (last call 9p).
3p – 6p KEEN Rippin Chix Beg/Int Skills Camp in Park. More Info: AlisonGannett.com970-209-8207
3:30p – 9p PARTY IN THE PARK! Fruita Civic Center Park (325 E Aspen Ave)
3:30p – 9p-ish Live Music

Food Vendors available all evening.

Online Registration available at imathlete.com during event

Saturday, April 25

8a – 9p Expo Open. (*Note, most vendors close booths at sunset, bands & beer ‘till 9p).
8a-6p Bike Demos (Festival Pass, Weekender Pass, or Demo Wristband Required)
8am-4pm Weekender Pass/Demo Wristband Registration/Check in-Fruita Civic Center Park (325 E Aspen Ave)
8a – 10:30a Pancake Breakfast! Presented by US BANK & COPMOBA. No charge but donations encouraged to support COPMOBA’s efforts to maintain our beautiful Grand Valley Trails.
9a – 12p KEEN Rippin Chix Intermediate Singletrack Camp. More Info:AlisonGannett.com 970-209-8207
3p-4:30p Clunker Crit (Registration for the Crit is at the Hot Tomato at 12 noon)
12p – 9:15p New Belgium Beer Garden OPEN (last call 9p).
1:30p – 9p PARTY IN THE PARK! Fruita Civic Center Park (325 E Aspen Ave)
1:30p – 9p-ish Live Music
7:30 ish Prize Drawings & Give Away-s. **Including drawing for New Belgium Cruiser Bike. PLEASE NOTE: Value/nice prizes for registered pass holder participants only.
9:30p Expo Closes. Park Take-down and clean up.

Food Vendors Available all evening.

Online Registration available at imathlete.com during event

Sunday, April 26

8a – ? Enjoy a few more hours of single track heaven here in beautiful Fruita, CO.

FESTIVAL PASSES

Experience the festival in style with a Pass.  You will gain access to all the parties with free beer, food and a chance to win great prizes. Make sure you register today and purchase your passes – they will SELL OUT!

More details on the Festival Passes – Click Here

Here is the link to the above schedule: http://fruitafattirefestival.com/schedule/

 

Read more

How did real estate perform in the 1st quarter of 2015?

Let’s look at how 2015 1st quarter did vs 2014 1st quarter.
The following is for all sales on the GJ area MLS by reporting agents/companies.
This is for single family homes excluding modular and manufactured built homes.

1ST QUARTER:
# of Sales 2015:   455               # of Sales 2014: 392
Median Sales Price 2015: $186,900
Median Sales Price 2014: $180,000

Median Days On Market 2015- 109 days
Median Days On Market 2014- 104.5 days

REO/HUD/Short Sales 2015- 16.47% of total sales
REO/HUD/Short Sales 2014- 23.7% of total sales

Areas with Median Sales Price for 2015 for 1st Qtr Sales
Redlands- $277,500
North- $242,250
Fruita- $219,900
NE- $179,900
SE- $167,450
Orchard Mesa: $171,450
GJ City: $147,650
Clifton: $139,150

Observations:
*# of sales in the 1st quarter of  2015 vs 2014 was up 15.82%.  This will be interesting to see if demand stays strong for the remainder of 2015 or if this uptick in sales in the 1st quarter was somewhat aided by our warmer temperatures over the winter.
*The number of REO (bank owned), HUD, & Short sales dropped from roughly 1 in every 4 sales in 2014 to 1 in every 6 sales in 2015.  This is a positive in my opinion as the fewer bank, hud, short sales that are on the market, the less competition for the average homeowner that is selling that might have to compete against a bank pricing a tad lower than market to sell their inventory.
*With the positive news of a big uptick in # of sales and fewer REO/HUD/Short Sales, the median sales price only increased by 3.83%.  Not bad but a lot lower when you compare to the Front Range (Denver, Ft. Collins…) where real estate appears to be hot, hot, hot over there.
On the flip side, good news for those that are or will soon be in the market to buy as they can take advantage of low interest rates and still find a home at an affordable price.

Have specific real estate questions or are considering buying or selling?
Please give me a call or e-mail me.

Matt Eilers
C#970-445-8227
E-mail: MattEilers@aol.com

Read more

Hugs & Kisses, Dragons Blood, Salty Tear, Magic Potion, Grandma’s Sweater, Potentially Purple, & Frozen in Time.

Believe it or not, these are all different type of paint colors.  No wonder when it comes time to choose a paint color, we diligently head to the paint store, grab a paint wheel to studiously review, see the insane number of selections and…..cue eyes glazing over and brain shutting  down.  With colors like Potentially Purple, can you blame a complete brain freeze?  Is that color purple….potentially.

Here are a few links to hopefully make the painting process a tad easier.

Benjamin Moore’s 2015 Color of the Year-  Guilford Green
“A neutral that’s natural. A silvery green that works with, well, everything. No worries. No second thoughts. Just a brush, dipped in a can, whooshed on a wall, and a whole lot of happily ever after.”   –Ellen O’Neill, Creative Director, Benjamin Moore With a description like that, no wonder it is the 2015 color of the year.  Makes me want to jump into a pool of Guilford Green and live happily ever after bathed in Guilford Green from head to toe.
http://www.benjaminmoore.com/en-us/for-your-home/benjamin-moore-color-trends-2015

Selling a Home? How to Stage Your Home with Color
Painting is a low cost way to visually enhance your home, freshen up the home’s look both inside and outside and make it appealing for a Buyer to walk through. On the other hand, rooms that have very
BOLD colors can be a turn off to Buyers, make some areas such as bathrooms seem smaller than they already are and potentially cost the Sellers thousands of dollars in a lower sales price as I find most Buyers are looking for a home that is nice and move in ready rather than a home that comes with a honey doo list right from the get go.  The following link has some nice tips as well as a 30 minute webinar that is worth a listen when the time comes to paint.
http://www.benjaminmoore.com/en-us/for-your-home/how-to-stage-your-home-with-color

Color Visualizer
A nice website that I have used in the past that can help you see how colors might look is found at Sherman Williams.  They have a color visualizer where you can upload your own photo (never have tried this) or choose pictures from various rooms of the house like a bedroom, kitchen…and then choosing a color, dragging it onto the wall and seeing how it looks.  Fun to play around with to at least narrow down your selection.  Use the link below and then click on the “Launch Color Visualizer” tab which can be found in the middle of the page just a short way down.
http://www.sherwin-williams.com/homeowners/color/try-on-colors/color-visualizer/

Good luck & happy painting from Dream Home Real Estate.

As always, please feel free to call me for any of your real estate needs.
Dream Home Real Estate
Matt Eilers
C#970-445-8227
MattEilers@aol.com

 

 

 

 

 

Read more

Have you ever wondered the breakdown of what goes into building a new home?
The National Association of Builders, NAHB, earlier this year released the results of a survey from 2013 that broke down the various costs that go into new home construction.

Here are the results of where the final home’s sales price goes to (this is a national average):
62%- Construction Costs
19%- Finished Lot Costs
9.3%- Builder Profits
4%- Overhead and general expenses
4%- Sales Commissions
1%- Financing Costs
1%- Marketing Costs

Here is the breakdown of where the Construction Costs went:
29.3%- Interior Finishes
19.1%- Framing
14.4%- Exterior Finishes
13.4%- Major System Rough-ins
9.5%- Foundations
6.8%- Site Work
6.6%- Final Steps
0.9%- Other Costs

To read more on this, click or copy & paste: http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=734&genericContentID=221388&channelID=311

Looking to see what is on the market in new home construction?  Please e-mail or call me and I would be happy to send you over options in your area.
Matt Eilers
MattEilers@aol.com
970-445-8227

 

 

Read more

Brrrrrrrr!!  Starting to get cold outside.   Ski resorts are starting to open & Vail Pass had it’s 1st closure due to snow…so whether we are ready or not, winter is here.  Let’s take a look at the 1st 10 months (Jan. 1-Oct. 31) of 2014 and compare to 2013 to get an idea on how the market is doing.

OVERALL- Single Family Homes *Using areas: Fruita, North, Redlands, GJ City, NE, SE, Clifton, Orchard Mesa

  Single Family Homes  
Overall 2014 2013 % Change
# of Sales 1893 1868 1.34%
Med. Sales Price $185,000 $179,900 2.83%
Avg. Sales Price $213,183 $201,455 5.82%
Med. DOM 90 83.5 -7.78%
Avg. DOM 118 109 -8.26%
Avg SP/LP 97.47% 97.72% -0.25%

Thoughts: # of sales is basically about the same.  Prices are up 3-5.5%.  One item to keep an eye on is the Days on Market (DOM) did regress in 2014 by roughly a week.

3 Bdrm Single Family Homes Comparison    
 

2014

2013

2014

2013

Area

# of Sales

# of Sales

Med. Sales Price

Med. Sales Price

Redlands

115

123

$270,000

$280,000

North

182

131

$229,750

$239,000

Fruita

161

141

$192,500

$197,000

GJ City

129

138

$153,000

$153,430

NE

169

177

$169,000

$159,500

SE

159

174

$149,780

$140,000

Orchard Mesa

144

164

$167,500

$149,450

Clifton

98

91

$126,575

$106,000

 

 

2014

2013

Area

Avg. Sales Price

Avg. Sales Price

Redlands

$330,487

$301,800

North

$246,026

$248,915

Fruita

$207,588

$203,864

GJ City

$156,690

$144,255

NE

$166,124

$159,245

SE

$138,335

$132,006

Orchard Mesa

$178,372

$156,234

Clifton

$115,212

$102,836


 

2014

2013

2014

2013

Area

Avg DOM

Avg DOM

Med. DOM

Med.DOM

Redlands

128

115

110

81

North

112

113

100

87

Fruita

127

112

94

90

GJ City

113

108

86

76.5

NE

111

98

86

78

SE

119

94

90

69.5

Orchard Mesa

106

106

79

67.5

Clifton

107

109

78

84

Thoughts:  It appears that the Median & Average Sales Price in 2014 both rose in the areas where prices tended to be under $200K.  Although in areas that were +$200K such as Fruita, Redlands & North areas, this did not hold.  Another item to watch in 2015 is how the Days On Market which increased in 2014 vs 2013 affects the real estate market.

 

Read more

Here is a look at how real estate sales in September 2014 did.  For this we are looking at real estate sales in the 9 major areas in and around the valley.  Fruita, Redlands, Grand Junction City, North, SE GJ, NE GJ, Clifton, Orchard Mesa & Clifton.

We will also look back and see how September 2014 Grand Junction real estate sales did vs September 2013 real estate sales.

 

  2014 September Sales Figures  
Area # of Sales Med Sales Price Avg Sales Price Median Days On Market
Fruita

26

$190,800

$240,886

92

GJ City

24

$138,000

$149,946

106.5

NE GJ

24

$166,250

$164,443

79.5

SE GJ

20

$154,450

$154,287

95

Redlands

23

$350,000

$346,948

89

North

25

$265,000

$293,117

136

Orchard Mesa

18

$179,950

$184,996

74

Palisade

3

121

Clifton

12

$142,250

$139,517

50

In September, the Sold Price to List Price came in at 98.27%

 

  2013 September Sales Figures  
Area # of Sales Med Sales Price Avg Sales Price Median Days On Market
Fruita

25

$212,000

$214,947

85

GJ City

22

$122,673

$130,641

80

NE GJ

22

$164,500

$175,764

71

SE GJ

19

$156,000

$147,854

86

Redlands

23

$290,000

$346,916

92

North

22

$287,250

$336,712

99

Orchard Mesa

30

$172,500

$178,490

72.5

Palisade

12

$186,250

$252,368

92

Clifton

10

$75,500

$84,041

74

In September, the Sold Price to List Price came in at 98.04%

OVERALL SALES through end of September for 2014

OVERALL for 2014- Using the areas above

2014

 
 

# of Sales

Med Sales Price

Avg. Sales Price

Median Days on Market

Jan.1-Sept. 30

1741

$185,000

$211,858

89

Median Sold Price to List Price as a percentage:  98.27%  

 FOR 2013

 

2013

     
  # of Sales Med Sales Price Avg. Sales Price Median Days on Market
Jan.1-Sept. 30

1751

$179,000

$201,782

82

Median Sold Price to List Price as a percentage:  98.25%  

 OVERALL ANALYISIS:
*# of Sales has remained the same in 2014 vs 2013
*Median Sales Price is up 3.35%
*Median Days on Market is ~7 days longer vs 2013

 

 

Read more

With the end of 2014 getting closer and closer, what might the real estate market in 2015 look like.

The Home Buying Institute offered their 5 predictions for 2015.
1) Home Values will keep rising but gradually
2) Double digit gains limited to California and the Southwest
3) Mortgage rates below 5% for the next year
*but rates might rise by ~0.7% and be at or around 5% by the 4th Quarter of 2015
4) Foreclosure inventory will decline sharply
5) Mortgage loans will be easier to obtain

For the full article: http://www.homebuyinginstitute.com/news/housing-predictions-and-trends-572/

Read more