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Archive for November 2016

A bank/government owned aka REO property comes onto the MLS.   You call your Dream Home Realtor and head out to take a look at the home.

You think it could use some work but otherwise a decent possibility and in the end you decide that you want to make an offer.  Let’s assume that the home is currently listed at $225,000.

What price should you make an offer at?  Some believe that since it is bank/government owned property, might as well make a low offer on the property.  You decide to offer $191,250 or 15% less than current list price.

What do you think, will the contract be accepted?

To answer that question, I looked at Nov. 19, 2015-Nov. 19, 2016 sales for properties that were listed as REO on the MLS.  This does NOT include HUD homes or short sales as this is listed as a separate category from REO on our MLS.  I looked at SFH not including modular or manufactured homes in the areas of Fruita and Grand Junction.

There were 95 matching sales using the search parameters from above.  Using these, here are the findings:
When I say List Price below, that would be the current list price of when it went under contract. 
Original List Price: the 1st price the REO comes on the market at

*Average Sold Price to List price: 99.12%
*Median Sold Price to List Price when it went under contract: 98.28%
*Only 7.4% of the sold REO homes had a sales price of less than 10%+ of the list price
*Biggest difference from Sales Price to List Price: 82.13%
*Outside of the 82.13% sale, no other REO sale sold for less than 87% of current list price
*76.6% sold for 95%+ of the current list price
*~50% of REO sold properties eventually had some sort of price drop off their Original List Price
*Avg sales price versus Original List Price: 92.30%
*Median Sales Price vs Original List Price: 93.05%

While the stats above do not predict what will actually happen with the house you are looking at, the stats can be used to come up with a decent probability guesstimate.

You could apply the various %’s above, such as, there is a 76.6% chance that the offer accepted will be within 0-5% of the current list price. Same applies for others, currently, there is only a 7.4% chance that the accepted offer would come in at less than 10% of list based off of REO sales in the past year.

For our example, we decided to offer 15% less than list price.  Based off of sales over the past year, only 1/95 sold for 13%+ off their current list price.   So, fire away with the offer, but be prepared that the chance of getting an accepted offer of 15% off of list price seems very very low if last year’s sales stats are a guide.  If your offer of $191,250 was the most you think the home is worth, it doesn’t hurt to offer a contract and see what happens but again, numbers say that this will probably not work out and now your best bet is to sit back, monitor the price and hope the price drops to a point where your $191,250 offer is within the realm of the above numbers.

Want to know what current properties are listed on the MLS.  E-mail me and I can set you up with a REO, HUD and/or a short sale search so you can be updated as soon as a property hits the market.

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Today, let’s take a look at how much a 3 bdrm costs around the various areas of Grand Junction as well as Fruita.

In 2016 year to date, sales of a 3 bdrm single family home (not including modulars or manufactured homes) accounted for 60.3% of the total number of sales versus other bdrm sized homes in the area.

Since a 3 bdrm single family home is the most common sized home that Buyers seek out, let’s take a look at how much a 3 brm home costs around our area.

The following chart shows the Median Sales Price of a 3 bdrm single family home in each area from Jan. 1-Nov. 17th in 2016 as well as for Jan. 1-Nov. 17th, 2015 to see how much prices have changed over the past year.

Area 2016 2015 % Change
Clifton $156,500 $139,700 12.03%
Fruita $222,300 $206,000 7.91%
Grand Junction City $173,450 $169,950 2.06%
SouthEast $175,000 $171,000 2.34%
NorthEast $184,500 $179,900 2.56%
Redlands $323,500 $293,000 10.41%
North  $249,950 $239,500 4.36%
Orchard Mesa $185,000 $175,000 5.71%

Oddly, the least expensive area as well as the most expensive area by far lead the way in terms of % change of how much a 3 bdrm costs in 2016 vs 2015.

Question: Do you think the Average Days on Market differs across the various areas & price points for a sold property in 2016?
Again, you might think there would be some differences around but there is actually very little difference.  The average Days on Market for a sold 3 bdrm single family home for the entire area is 93 days.  6 of the 8 areas listed above are within 3 days of the average.  Redlands, the most expensive area, comes in with the slowest sales rate with an average days on market of 105 days…or roughly 12 days slower than the average. The NE area comes in with the fastest sales rate with an average days on market of  83 days.

Have some numbers you want run or see in a future article, feel free to e-mail me and happy to go Inside the Numbers for you.
E-Mail: MattEilers@aol.com

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How is our market doing?
Is it a Buyers market?
Is it a Sellers market?
CHALLENGE QUESTION: C
an you name the month that has had the MOST closings each year for the past 2 years for Single family homes?  Answer at the bottom of the article.

The above are common questions for anyone that deals with real estate or is thinking about buying or selling.

To answer many of these questions, it is best to take a look at hard numbers to get your answer rather than taking someone else’s word for it. Remember, this is a BIG investment if you are a Buyer and probably your biggest asset if you are a Seller.  The more information you can get, the better personal decision you will hopefully make for yourself.

Following is a look at just the month of October for sales of Single Family home sales in Fruita and the Grand Junction area.  Modulars and manufactured homes are not included in the data.

2016

2015 2014 2013

2012

# of Sales

188 182 190 162

167

Median Sales Price

$225,250

$209,900 $210,000 $185,636

$165,000

Median. SP/LP %

98%

98.60% 98.06% 97.92%

98.15%

Median Days on Market

76

79 101.5 94

78

Avg. Days on Market

96

115 118 113

98

Median Sold Price/Sq.Ft

$135

$127.06 $121.50 $ 111.00

$107.62

The following looks at the previous 5 years sales between Jan. 1st and Oct. 31st.  Same parameters as above.

2016

2015 2014 2013

2012

# of Sales

2,149

1,985 1,789 1,747

1,751

Median Sales Price

$213,600

$204,000 $194,900 $185,000

$173,500

Med. SP/LP %

99%

98.73% 98.32% 98.24%

98.22%

Median Days on Market

74

80 91 84

82

Avg. Days on Market

98

110 119 109

111

Median Sold Price/Sq.Ft

$133

$125.30 $118.81 $113.25

$107.76

Analysis: Looking at Jan. 1-Oct. 31st over the years, you can see that 2012-2014 had almost the exact same number of sales each year.
Sales in 2015  was up ~11% vs 2014 and now, 2016 has exceed that by increasing 8.24% vs 2015.
Median sales price has been fairly consistent by increasing at around $10,000 per year.
Days on market-  median days on market has dropped by ~1 week vs prior year and the average days on market has dropped by ~10% vs previous years.

Conclusion:   Demand has been increasing by ~8-10% per year for the past 2 years.  Days on market has fallen (that’s a good thing for a Seller).  
Typically, these 2 items coming together would result in a more dramatic increase in Sales Price…but that has not happened as much as I would have guessed given the increased sales coupled with decreasing days on market.  

The question we will find out the answer to over the next 6-12 months is…will we start to see more of a dramatic jump in sales prices due to
1) lower days on market,
2) increased # of sales
3) fairly tight sales price to list price ratio (99%) which shows that Sellers feel they are in better bargaining position than Buyers  
4) really low interest rates.  

Obviously there are other BIG factors that will also steer our market such as our national as well as local economy as we transition into a new leadership and policies, will interest rates stay low (keep an eye on the bond market), and of course the state of our local job market.

Another item that is very important is to keep an eye on is interest rates which is not touched on in this article.  Rates are historically low but rates moving up or down can affect how much one can afford.  2 days after the somewhat surprising presidential outcome, interest rates had jumped 1/4% in a day.  To show how much that affected a Buyer, someone looking at a 15 year loan whose rate moved up by 1/4%, they would have been charged about 1 point to buy their rate back down to what is had been 48 hours prior had they not locked their rate in.  A point is 1% of your loan amount so a $200,000 loan, the jump in interest rate meant a $2,000 cost to buy the rate back down OR if they did not buy the rate back down, then the Buyers could now qualify for a slightly less grand total than they previously could have.

What month has the most number of closings?
Answer: May.  Each year for the past 2 years, May has had more closings than any other month but keep in mind, this is when a home sells NOT when it goes under contract.  Assuming that a typical contract is 30-45 days in length and that means most of these May closings are going under contract in Mid- March through end of April.  So, plan accordingly.

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