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Archive for July 2014

The following is some of the highlights taken from the Colorado Business Review put out by University of Colorado Boulder Leeds School of Business.  For the full report, please see this link: http://origin.library.constantcontact.com/download/get/file/1102612802506-67/CBR+2014+Issue+3.pdf

Items from the report:
*Colorado’s GDP grew by 3.8% as compared with the nation which had 1.9%.
*Colorado is recording faster growth rate, personal income, and home prices
*revised numbers now predicting a net gain of 68,000 jobs in Colorado for 2014
*In 2013, Colorado was the 4th fastest growing state in terms of population growth and ranked 5th in absolute change.
*Colorado’s unemployment rate was 5.8%
*DIA is the 5th busiest airport in the nation
*Colorado’s ski industry experienced a record breaking year in 2013-14 with 12.6 million skier visits up 10% from the previous ski season.
*Real Estate, Rental & Leasing grew 1.4% year over year indicating growth in the housing industry.
*Recent drought conditions have spurred the growth of tumbleweeds, so much so that several counties have declared a state of emergency
*The state’s drought condition is dramatically better than 2013.  Topsoil moisture and subsoil moisture are generally adequate on 50% of farm acres which is better than 2013 when adequate subsoil moisture fell below 23% of farm acres.
*Pasture and range conditions indicate a 39% of acres are in poor to very poor condition, an improvement vs 2013
*Oil & natural gas wells have continued to grow in production, coal has suffered a steep decline.
*Construction employment has grown 8% year over year
*Colorado’s top export markets in order are Canada, Mexico, China, & Japan

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                                                                                                                                                                                                              July 9, 2014
Today, we will look at the area in Grand Junction known as Grand Junction City.  Very generally speaking, this is the area bounded by Patterson, Hwy 6 & 50 and around 1st out to 29 1/2 Rd.

This area is known for being home to Colorado Mesa University, St. Mary’s Hospital, Lincoln Park & historic Main Street.
Homes generally tend to be older versus some other areas around town with rancher or rancher with basement style build.

Grand Junction   City 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
# of Sales 295 284 233 179 213 126
Median Sales Price $141,901 $134,288 $124,625 $147,806 $169,000 $189,900
Average Sales Price $140,000 $135,950 $120,000 $145,000 $175,040 $198,568
Median DOM 77 78 93 96 82 74
Median SP/LP % 97.42% 98.69% 96.27% 96.93% 96.81% 98.11%

* Numbers are using sales as reported on Mesa County MLS
Median DOM-  Median Days On Market
Median SP/LP %- Median Sold Price/List Price as a percentage

Quick Analysis:
In this small 6 year look at Grand Junction City Real Estate, the height of the market was back in 2008 with average and median sales prices just a tad under $200,000.   2008 also corresponded to the height of the job market in the overall Grand Junction pre-recession employment figures.  Since then, Grand Junction lost ~11% of jobs and is expected to return to pre-recession employment in the 2nd Quarter of 2017. For this article, see: http://gjdreamhome.com/grand-junction-jobs-outlook/

Grand Junction City had a steep 3 year loss from 2008 with regard to sales price.  The average sales price in 2011 dropped to $120,000 which was a -39.6% change from the 2008 highs.

Days On Market:  As you can see, the median days on market has remained relatively unchanged.  The Days On Market INCLUDES time when the property is under contract.  Assuming that once a property goes under contract it takes ~30-45 days to close, the median amount of time that a home would go under contract would be 1.5-2 months.

Grand Junction City 2014 Sold Info from Jan. 1-June 30, 2014
-Sales: 122 sales.  In 2013 for the same time period, there was 163 sales.
-Median Sales Price: $142,500
-Average Sales Price: $151,854
-Median Days On Market; 84
-Median Sold Price/List Price %: 97.11%

Grand Junction City:   Currently On the Market
*As of today, there are 126 homes on the market.  *
*The Median List Price is $168,000
*Average List Price is $181,852
*Median Price Per Square Foot: $111.51

If you would like to view any homes in this area, please give me a call.
Buying?  Check out my Buyers Checklist at: http://gjdreamhome.com/ultimate-buyers-checklist/

Follow me on Facebook at Grand Junction Dream Home Real Estate

 

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Continued positive news is coming in on jobs nationally.  Yet is this reflected in the Grand Junction market as well?

Let’s look at the numbers:
*the following information was obtained from a lengthy report generated by IHS Global Insight for The United States Council of Mayors

According to the report, Grand Junction has a pre-recession peak employment in the 3rd Quarter of 2008.  Since that height, Grand Junction lost 7900 jobs which accounted for a 11.8% loss of jobs from height.  While all other major metro areas in Colorado have returned to their pre-recession peak employment levels, Grand Junction has yet to do so.  The projection by the report for a return to peak (in our case, the number of jobs that existed at the height in the 3rd Quarter 2008) will be the 2nd Quarter of 2017.

While Grand Junction has not returned to/surpassed the pre-recession peak for jobs like all other major metro areas in the state, Grand Junction also had the largest % of job losses.  By comparison, Denver had a -5.7% loss, Colorado Springs -6.2%, Greeley -7.1%, Boulder -6.4% and Pueblo -3.2%.   Thus, Grand Junction with a 11.8% loss of jobs was by far hit the hardest statewide.

So, while the news that statewide jobs are back to pre-recession levels except Grand Junction, it needs to be remembered that Grand Junction had the most ground to make up as well.

In what appears to be positive news for the Grand Junction unemployment numbers, here is a breakdown of actual unemployment numbers through end of 2013 (as I read it from the report) with projected unemployment numbers for 2014, 2015 and 2016.
2012-  8.9% unemployment
2013- 7.5%  unemployment
2014- 6.9% unemployment
2015- 6.1% unemployment
2016- 5.6% unemployment

If the projections hold true, looks like the unemployment numbers for Grand Junction are moving in a positive direction.

 

 

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